Our analysis suggest that the current tipping point – which is to say the age where voters are more likely to favour the Conservatives over Labour – is 34. With both of the two main now parties performing better amongst women overall, it’s the other parties who are balancing this out by polling better amongst men. Amongst those with no formal qualifications, the Conservative lead by 35%. Some 85% of those who voted Conservative in 2017 stuck with them in 2019, compared to 72% of Labour voters. As a direct result of this the number of young people registering to vote in 2017 was the highest of any age group. Social class, the media, short term factors like image and single issue voting and long term factors such as geography, age and ethnicity can all play a role in voting behaviour. This loss of voters was balanced by winning over new voters from across all other parties. Only half (52%) of those who voted leave in 2016 and Labour in 2017, stuck with the Labour party in 2019. Yet the 1,617,989 votes cast in favour of leaving the UK – representing 44.7% of total voters and roughly 37% of all those in the country aged 16 or over – indicate clear differences of opinion on the question of independence. Britain has two over-65s for every adult under 25; factor in turnout and the grey vote outnumbers the youth vote three to one. voting behaviour. For example at the 1992 election the Conservatives lead Labour amongst ABC1 (middle class) voters by around 30 points, whilst Labour was leading amongst C2DE (working class) voters by around 10 percentage points. In fact, for every 10 years older a voter is, their chance of voting Tory increases by around nine points, and the chance of them voting Labour decreases by eight points. Although every voter is an individual, this data shows how demographics relate to electoral behaviour. Whereas, Conservatives has done well among the middle age (50-65) leading 18 percent in 1950 and 23 percent in 1974. Despite improving their overall vote share from 8% to 12% this election, the Liberal Democrats only retained 59% of their 2017 voters. The Liberal Democrats also performed very well amongst this group with 17% of the vote share. When you just look at the over-40s, the gap is just two points – with 21% of women and 19% of men of that age saying they will vote Labour. They are 13% behind amongst those with a personal income of under £20,000 a year, although it is worth noting that this group will also include many retired people who will be poor in terms of income but rich in terms of assets. However, given how badly they did among the over 60s in the last election, they didn’t have much more to lose. In the EU referendum and again in 2017 age was a new dividing line in British politics. The potential threat of the Brexit Party at the start of the campaign proved to do little damage to the Tories, attracting just 2% of 2017 Conservatives. The Conservatives won amongst the much larger group of voters who do not hold a degree, however. The Conservatives were ahead among those aged 45-54 (with 43%), 55-64 (with 49%) and 65+ (with 62%). Labour lost similar numbers of voters to the Conservatives (11%) as they did to the Liberal Democrats (9%). As this campaign starts, the Conservatives hold a 22% lead amongst middle class voters and a 17% lead amongst working class ones. The Conservatives managed to keep hold of almost all (92%) of their 2017 voters who were on the Leave side in 2016. The Conservatives, to all intents and purposes, were the party of the middle class and Labour that of the workers. The Conservatives pick up 60% of this group’s support and the Lib Dems also perform well, getting almost a fifth (19%) of their votes. The Conservatives did a much better job than Labour of retaining their 2017 voters. While no official data on youth turnout exists at the time of writing, some exit polls suggest turnout among under-35s rose by 12 percentage points compared with 2015, to 56 percent. “Class” used to be central to understanding British politics. This represents a substantial shift in voting behaviour by gender, with 2017 in particular representing a complete reversal of previous trends. Analysis suggests that the gender gaps we witnessed in 2015 and 2017 were particularly driven by younger voters. The tipping point - the age at which a voter is more likely to have voted Conservative than Labour - is now 39, down from 47 at the last election. But today, class would tell you little more about a person’s voting intention that looking at their horoscope or reading their palms. Before the last election David Cameron was sometimes described as having a “woman problem”. In the Brexit referendum of 2016, 73 percent of people aged between 18 and 24 voted to remain in the European Union, compared with just 40 percent … This video examines factors affecting Voting Behaviour in UK elections. Rational Choice Theory is more relevant in a society in which people are more educated, have access to a wider range of media and is more individualistic, with a better understanding … The Labour vote remained in the 60s right up to 29 year olds. They outperformed Labour by more than two to one (58% to 25%) amongst those whose highest level of education is GCSE or lower. UKIP have the support of 2% more men than women, whilst the gender gap is 3% for the Lib Dems. This fall came mainly at the hands of the Liberal Democrats, who increased their vote share amongst Remain voters to 21%, compared to 12% in 2017. Associate Director of Political and Social Research, age was a new dividing line in British politics. One of the reasons for the policy might be that the party has very few votes to lose amongst those in this tax bracket. Copyright © 2018 YouGov PLC. However among older voters this almost disappears completely. The only party with a better retention of 2017 voters was the SNP, who kept hold of 87% of their past voters. This election will be no different. The data points towards a very small gender gap, with the Conservatives on 46% among men and 44% among women, and Labour on 31% among men and 35% among women. The data indicates that little has changed on this front over the past two years, with Labour still winning a majority of younger voters and the Conservatives miles ahead among older Britons. In Thursday’s referendum, Scottish independence was rejected by a margin of around 10 percentage points. Long term factors can include social background, whereas … The dividing lines were so notable that you could predict, with a reasonable degree of accuracy, how someone would vote just by knowing their social grade. Political scientists and psychologists have attempted to explain patterns in voting behaviour by using different ‘models’, but most ‘models’ have similar elements – they simply emphasise a specific element. This is a further realignment of voters by class that we first saw in 2017. Education also shapes other parties’ vote shares. An important source of political info for voters is through the media. It’s currently too early to tell the exact impact this could have on the final result. But when you break this down it is most evident among the very youngest. Age Conservative Labour Brexit realignment was already a huge factor in the last general election, with 55% of Remainers voting Labour and 65% of Leavers voting Conservative. Age has become the biggest demographic division in Conservative and Labour support Never before has there been so large an age divide in British electoral politics. All Rights Reserved. However, these two things cancelled each other out meaning that ultimately the Conservatives polled about the same amongst both men and women. 2015 UK General Election voter breakdown - Gender and Age (Source Ipos MORI) Gender Conservative Labour Men 38 30 Women 37 33. Both the Conservatives and Labour lost voters on the other side of the Brexit debate. affect voters’ behaviour, such as self-efficacy (a person’s belief in their ability to succeed in specific situations or accomplish a task)11, personality (conscientiousness and emotional stability)12, stress13, voting history and habit14 and even the location of voting can exert subtle influences15. Recommendations YouGov has conducted the largest survey yet on last week’s general election, interviewing over 40,000 British adults to discover patterns across demographics: age, gender, class, education and previous votes. 22% voted Lib Dem, while 8% moved to the Labour party. But as the campaign begins, new YouGov analysis of over 12,000 people shows the demographic dividing lines of British voters. In announcing the snap election, Theresa May set out her desire to create a “more united” country in the aftermath of last year’s referendum. • Receipt of social grants was also not a significant factor and was shown to be non-significant in the ‘clientelism’ model of voting behaviour. One in five (19%) 2017 UKIP voters backed the Brexit Party, while two thirds (67%) moving to the Tories. While the Labour vote increased by 12 points for 25-34 year olds and 35-44 year olds, it only increased by 4 points for 55-64 year olds. voting behaviour Voting is the main form of political participation in liberal democratic societies and the study of voting behaviour is a highly specialized sub-field within political science.The analysis of voting patterns invariably focuses on the determinants of why people vote as they do and how they arrive at the decisions they make. This time around the Conservatives managed to boost their vote share amongst Leave voters to three quarters (74%) while the Labour Party actually reduced their share of Remain voters to just under half (49%). All Rights Reserved. Labour has a large gender gap among younger voters. Copyright © 2018 YouGov PLC. The Conservatives performed equally well amongst ABC1 voters and C2DE voters (44%) two years ago, marginally better than Labour in both cases. A third (33%) moved directly to the Conservatives, while 6% voted for the Brexit party. See also : How Britain Voted in 1997 (detail), How Britain Voted in 2001 (detail), How Britain Voted in 2005 (detail), How Britain Voted in 2010 (detail), Voting by housing tenure 1983-2010, Voting Intention by religion 1992-2005, Voting by newspaper … Media plays a massive role in voting behaviour throughout the UK, whether it be old media or new media, overall, it is … A Labour loss will prompt calls for … Therefore, it can be said that age does affect voting behaviour in the UK. Age is also a big driver of turnout, with older people being far more likely to vote than young people. UKIP also struggles amongst highly educated voters, polling four times higher amongst those with no formal qualifications compared to those with a degree. The tipping point - the age at which a voter is more likely to have voted Conservative than Labour - is now 39, down from 47 at the last election. 1 Working Class Brexit Participation and politics. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. The highest level of education someone has achieved remains an important dividing line in how people vote. But while the Conservatives are still the party of the rich, Labour is no longer the party of the poor. Figure 1 Voting at the 2017 general election by religious affiliation Source: Author’s analysis of British Election Study Internet Panel 2014-2018, wave 13. Both long term and short term factors affect voting behaviour. The figures below show the distribution of votes by gender for those aged 25 and under, and 66 and over, in 2015. John McDonnell, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, has already made income part of this campaign by labelling those who earn above £70,000 a year as “rich” and hinting they may face tax rises. But when it comes to those with a degree, the Tory lead falls to 8%. The data is scant, but some estimates are available. This is because voting has turned into a habit for the elderly, and they are more likely to see an impact in their lives due to different party policies. In order to do that, we need to understand the voting behaviour for each age group. Now they have improved their showing amongst C2DEs while achieving the same as 2017 amongst ABC1s. One in five of this group moved to Labour and 14% voted Conservative. If we just look at those aged from 18 to 24 the Conservatives are on 28% among men and just 15% among women.
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